normal · model 2026-08-04
South China Sea
Broad corridor with grey-zone harassment risk near disputed features. Density is indicative across a wide basin.
- Est. daily vessels
- 171
- vs baseline
- -10%
- Avg anchorage
- 10h
- Box / tanker / other
- 68 / 44 / 59
South China Sea: within normal operating band for this corridor model.
Related incidents
- maritime incidentsouth china seamedium impact3 Jun
Satellite and AIS analysts note elevated militia vessel presence near Spratly features
Think-tank and commercial satellite analysts reported denser clustering of suspected maritime militia vessels near several Spratly features over a two-week window.
Confidence: 68/100 - maritime incidentsouth china seahigh impact3 Feb
Philippines reports China Coast Guard water-cannon incident near Second Thomas Shoal
Manila said China Coast Guard vessels used water cannons against a Philippines resupply boat near Second Thomas Shoal; Beijing described the action as lawful jurisdiction enforcement.
Confidence: 78/100 - shipping chokepointothermedium impact4 Aug
Hormuz Traffic Levels Continue Decreasing, Houthis Threaten Saudi Tankers
Traffic levels in the Strait of Hormuz have reportedly decreased significantly, dropping 52.4% over a recent period. Houthis in Yemen have threatened Saudi tankers, escalating regional tensions — claims not independently verified.
Confidence: 65/100 - maritime incidentsouth china sealow impact4 Aug
X reports Chinese Warships, Bombers Surge to Scarborough Shoal for Drills — not independently verified
Chinese warships and bombers conducted drills at Scarborough Shoal. The exercises aim to assert China's territorial claims in the area. The drills have been characterized by China as a means to safeguard its sovereignty and maritime rights — not independently verified.
Confidence: 48/100 - maritime incidenteast china seamedium impact1 Aug
Japan Coast Guard reports Chinese vessels near Senkaku Islands
Japan Coast Guard observed four China Coast Guard vessels in contiguous zone around Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands for 28 hours.
Confidence: 82/100 - shipping chokepointsoutheast asiamedium impact30 Jul
Malacca Strait congestion rises amid monsoon season delays
Vessel tracking data shows average transit times through Malacca up 18% week-on-week due to weather and port backlog in Singapore.
Confidence: 72/100